"worthwhile extravagant claims...sensible staking advice   MoreMoneyReview Aug '11 Read More


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Shinji Kagawa

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Samba League Soccer Betting Tips


Subscribe for soccer tips, football predictions and betting adviceThe 2011 Brazilian Campeonato kicks off in May and is a league which should interest football punters everywhere. The ratio of home wins in the Brazilian Serie A is fascinating and I have yet to uncover a league with a higher winning ratio for home teams. Of course I haven’t researched every world wide league (maybe someday!) but of the many competitions I follow and study, the Campeonato in the land where football is religion comes up trumps.


What does this mean for us, the profit-seeking soccer punters? Well, an obvious tip is that betting on the away team in Brazil is never something you should consider. Not only is the home win percentage higher than most other leagues, but it’s surprising how strong even the teams at the bottom of the table perform in front of their own fans. For ease of illustration let’s look at final league standings over the last five years in Brazil and compare against the most watched league in the world – the English Premier League.


Subscribe for soccer tips, football predictions and betting adviceI’ll avoid heavy duty numerical tables but instead give you a brief summary of my findings. To add relevance to my results, I excluded the top third percentile of teams in both leagues. The logic behind this is that the top six or seven teams in all leagues tend to do well at home and win the majority of fixtures in front of their own supporters. Removing these teams gives a better insight into how the bottom two thirds of teams perform. After all, these are the games which offer value in the betting markets.


I analysed results from the 2006 to 2010 seasons (five years of data) and worked out the home win percentage of teams from positions 8 through to 20. I then worked out the mean home win percentage for each year, and took an average for the five year period. The results are compelling. In England’s Premier League, the home win percentage worked out at 39% for the five seasons. In Brazil’s Serie A the figure was 46%. When you consider the amount of home games each team plays over five seasons, you can appreciate the significance of the 7% variance.


Observing only the teams which finished last also provides interesting comparisons. In the five years studied, the total number of home games won by the bottom team in England was 17, whereas in Brazil it was 29. Both leagues consist of twenty teams that fulfill nineteen home fixtures, so the comparison is fair. Generous value can be found in the Brazilian soccer betting markets. Knowing what we do about the home record of teams it’s worth seeking out this value every week because in the long term, tipping the home team in the Campeonato is more beneficial than doing likewise in other leagues.

For details of soccer leagues covered, betting strategies and our football tipping service, visit our home page Soccer tips, picks, predictions and betting advice from professional football tipster





Why Share Soccer Tips?


Soccer punters tend to look at professional tipsters with an element of suspicion. “If your soccer tips are so good, then why are you selling them?” is one of the more common questions asked of soccer tipsters. The train of thought here is that if a tipster is so skilled at betting, then why share the wealth? There are numerous reasons which I will cover, by my initial answer is a simple, "Why not?” The fact of the matter is the online gambling community is rapidly growing and now more than ever is the demand for genuine football tipsters at its peak. Exposure to betting at football games is at an all time high. Advertising hoardings, team sponsors and ad breaks during a game are dominated by brightly coloured advertisements for betting sites. The link between football and betting is unavoidable.


My personal challenge was and still is to develop a reputation as a knowledgeable and trustworthy provider of reliable tips and soccer betting advice in the ever increasing world of football and soccer tipsters. In a generation that sees many cleverly marketed sites and scam artists give genuine tipsters a bad name, it's rewarding to build up a trust with members who have been burned in the past. It’s challenging to build up such trust in an industry that is seen by many as being overrun with fraudsters and conmen.


At this stage I should point out that as well as striving to build up a trustful relationship with members, I’m also in this game to make a living – yes money does come into the equation! If you are serious about being a genuine tipster then it becomes a full time commitment, such is the amount of time required to comprehensively study, analyse and continually research and monitor data. I believe this is what people are paying for – my time. Most soccer punters can have a fairly educated bet on the English Premier League, but very few will be aware of, say, a value bet in the Belgian second division. They just don’t have the time or inclination to delve into the lower echelons of European football. I do and I love doing it, but if I can get x amount of people to pay me a modest subscription to compensate for my time dedicated to research and analysis, then why shouldn't I? I gave up my well paid job in the finance world nine months ago to put all my energy into tipping and betting. If I couldn’t generate an income then this move would have been foolish in the extreme.


Soccer tipping for me is a thrill and whilst challenging it can be highly rewarding. It’s all very well to develop a system that can generate personal long term betting profits. It’s a whole different ball game when a number people are paying for your service with only one thing on their minds – winning and winning often. Having a bad week of results can be difficult to accept when members feel left down. There is a high level of expectancy for winning soccer tips by paying members and rightly so. This pressure to perform is what drives me on. Apart from professional reputation, personal pride also plays a big part in my ambition. When thankful members email me after a profitable weekend to say something along the lines of “let’s keep beating the bookie”, I derive a rebellious sense of pleasure from beating the system, which in this case is the bookmaker. Long may it all continue. 

If you'd like to find out more about my soccer tipping service visit our home page  TIPSOCCERBET - soccer tips, picks and betting advice




Successful Soccer Betting - Getting Started


If you are a novice to the art of soccer betting, then registering an account with a sports gambling website can seem like a difficult task. There are many sites out there offering many various sign-up incentives, making your choice seem like an impossible task. Well, the fact is that most of the sites are quite similar and most of their incentives work out to be effectively the same thing. I would stress that it’s important to read any terms and conditions before you select a site for registration, especially the small print, as many customers can misinterpret a $50 sign-up bonus as money in the bank, when in reality they need to bet three times that amount and wait three months before they have access to the $50.


The idea of this blog to provide you with some useful hints that will get you off to a solid start as you begin your quest to profit from betting on the beautiful game. Unfortunately there is no magic winning formula, no secret insider information and I don’t have in my possession a crystal ball. I can offer you some handy betting tips, or guidelines, which I’ve accumulated over the years through personal gambling experiences, trial and error and endless conversations with other football gamblers who are as passionate as I am about beating the bookmakers. If you’re a seasoned punter then nothing here will be new to you. I will, however, be providing useful hints and tips for more experienced punters in the upcoming weeks.

So now I’ll give you five simple pointers to help you on your way to becoming a sensible and disciplined punter. Some of these guidelines might sound blatantly obvious, but you wouldn’t believe how many times people, including myself in my rookie phase, have not adhered to these basic rules and endured frustrating losses.


5 Rules to get the most from Tips  BASIC POINTERS TO GET YOU STARTED

1. Never bet what you aren’t willing to lose. This is the Golden Rule of Gambling. It might seem trivial to mention it at all, but the fact is that punters can act impulsively when on a profitable run (when they believe that they have discovered a winning system) or when they are chasing some losses (after they have endured a bad run). Before you place your first bet, it’s vital that you work out what you can afford to lose. Never ever bet more than you can afford to lose.


2. Take baby steps. Don’t be tempted by the garish and colourful banners that flash on your screen when you sign up with a betting site, beckoning you to try your luck at high payout bets. Avoid these exotic bets until you are more up to speed with how it all works. Keep it simple - place your bet on a single team to win, or maybe a double (two teams to win, combined in one bet). Remember the more games you group together into a single bet, the higher chance there is of you losing.


3. Information is power. Whether you decide to carry out your own research or you subscribe to a genuine free soccer tipping service, ensure you have accumulated information about the game to be in a position to make a confident punt. Team selection, injuries, players on international leave, form-guide, high-intensity derbies and home and away records, along with various others, are important variables when it comes to making a well informed bet.


4. Avoid over-paying for tipping services. There are hundreds of soccer tipping services on the internet, each of which offer you soccer tips, picks and predictions. While some of these sites are genuine, the cold truth is that unfortunately many more are not. A simple guideline is this – if the offer seems too good to be true then it probably is. Also, you shouldn’t have to pay exorbitant fees to obtain quality soccer tips. There are a few reputable sites that provide reasonably priced winning soccer tips on a weekly basis. Don’t go near sites that promise you insider information or a magic winning formula. Let’s be blunt here. If somebody had access to something highly secretive and profitable, do you really think they’d be sharing it with you?


5. Have fun with your bets! This is supposed to be a relaxing pastime after all. Take notice if you ever find yourself feeling stressed, pressured or worried about the outcome of your bets. When this happens it’s time to take a long hard look at your gambling and work out why it’s become a problem. Don’t bet to solve financial problems or to try and pay bills. This will only end in trouble. Stick to the Golden Rule of only betting what you can afford to lose.


Following these useful hints will hopefully ensure that you derive enjoyment from soccer betting. Experiencing your first win, when the full time whistle blows and you know you have made a profit, is a superb feeling. Conversely the feeling of losing a bet isn’t a particularly enjoyable one, but you can use it to learn from experience as you gradually become a better punter.

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